The hottest glass futures price is expected to run

The price of glass futures is expected to run stronger

the recent trading volume of glass futures rose and fell, the position decreased slightly by 29.42, and the tension between the long and short sides was slightly relieved. However, the position of main glass contracts in 2001 is still above 600000 bilateral contracts, which is still strong in the overall weak industrial products, while the shutdown of Shahe production line, which has a great impact on glass spot and futures in the later stage, has not yet been finalized. According to the guidance of regulatory documents, the end of November this year is a key time node for the implementation of the shutdown of the remaining four production lines

among the three major building materials, the output of flat glass in 2018 was only 43.432 million tons, far less than 900 million tons of crude steel and 2.1 billion tons of cement. It is the little brother of building materials. Therefore, in the past two years, when the pressure of national environmental protection was the greatest, the overall attention of the glass industry was not high, and only the environmental protection production suspension and restriction measures in Shahe area of Xingtai City, Hebei Province, were relatively strict. In November 2017, Shahe shut down nine production lines, and in 2018, another four production lines withdrew. According to the relevant documents issued by Xingtai City in June this year, in order to achieve the goal of air pollution control, six production lines in Shahe area will be temporarily shut down this year. At present, two production lines of Shahe Zhengda and Shahe Great Wall have been shut down, which is also one of the main factors driving the rise of glass futures in the early stage

by comparing the air quality between Xingtai City and Tangshan City, the capital of iron and steel, in recent three years, the author found that the air quality index (AQI) of Xingtai City was higher than that of Tangshan city. In the nearly 1000 days since 2017, the air quality in Xingtai has been relatively poor for 640 days, accounting for 64.26%; In the 270 days since 2019, the air quality of 188 skies in Xingtai City is poor, accounting for 69.63%. The control of air quality still needs to be stepped up

according to the author's statistical calculation, combined with the current situation of glass futures delivery plants and warehouses, it can be inferred that there are four production lines expected to stop production in Shahe region in the future. The implementation of the shutdown will affect the spot and futures of glass. There are 27 production lines in Shahe area. If 4 production lines are shut down, the local supply will be reduced by 12.5%, and the impact on the futures delivery factory and warehouse in Shahe area will reach 8.46%, and the impact on Hubei and Shahe area (the existing mainstream glass futures delivery factory and warehouse) will reach 4.77%

for the spot level, the centralized reduction of supply in Shahe will mainly be reflected in the price difference between Shahe region and other regions, and will also have a great impact on the winter storage price in Shahe region this winter. While actively promoting green packaging and simple packaging at the futures level, the reduction of factory warehouse capacity will more affect the manufacturer's Hedging and delivery willingness. If the two production lines of Shahe Wangmei and Shahe Dejin stop production as scheduled, the willingness to sell hedging and the manufacturer's willingness to issue warehouse receipts in Shahe region will continue to decline with respect to the 2001 contract

from the recent operation of glass spot, after the continuous price rise of glass manufacturers in the early stage, traders and terminal processing plants have prepared goods. After November, the demand for glass will still be relatively stable, but it is mainly reflected in the link of raw film inventory consumed by processing plants. If there is no event stimulus, the author expects that the downstream will not focus on strong speculative replenishment in November, The inventory of glass manufacturers is expected to hover in the low range

at present, the basis of glass 2001 contract is moderate, and the benchmark price of Shahe at a discount is about 100 yuan. Looking forward to the future market of glass futures, there is still great uncertainty about the implementation of the shutdown of the remaining four production lines in Shahe area and the time course of the project using coal as raw material. Investors participating in glass futures still need to pay attention to investment risks. However, according to the current stock pressure of manufacturers in the benchmark place of futures, combined with the background of futures discount, manufacturers' willingness to sell hedging is not strong. The author expects that the futures basis will converge in November. On the whole, the safety margin of long glass 2001 contract is stronger. If the Shahe region stops production and lands, the valuation of the 2005 contract is expected to increase