The hottest glass futures may still rise in case o

Glass futures encounter strong support, and the upward trend may still be

important news

the weakness of the European economy is obvious, but there is no expectation of monetary easing that the general Steel Research Institute is the largest comprehensive research institution in China's metallurgical industry; There were voices against the 2% inflation target at the Bank of Japan meeting; The coal-fired power generation in the United States in January was significantly warmer due to the contraction of power generation from other energy sources; The domestic two sessions are imminent, and the macro policy is tightening

European Central Bank President Draghi said on the 18th that economic indicators showed further weakness in the eurozone

Japan released the minutes of the January meeting on Tuesday. Some members suggested buying longer-term Treasury bonds, and two members opposed the 2% inflation target

coal fired power generation in the United States rebounded significantly in January

the housing provident fund has been tightened in many places in China

glass index analysis

on the 19th, the "China glass composite index" rose 2.4 points over the previous day, "China glass price index" Rose 2.45 points, "China glass market confidence index" Rose 2.21 points. The spot market performed well. Some manufacturers raised their ex factory prices. The revision results of Rockwell hardness testers continued to rise, and the confidence index kept pace with the rise

glass spot situation

from the perspective of the characteristics of the glass industry, it will take about three months for the decline of glass inventory. The spot pressure still exists, and the tail effect in the off-season still exists. We cannot be too optimistic about the glass market in the short term

"The domestic original film market rose in the South and stabilized in the north. Zhangzhou Qibin, Yingde Hongtai, Jiangmen China Resources and other manufacturers in South China have raised yuan/weight box, and the mainstream 5mm quotation is 1560~1640 yuan/ton; the price in East China is temporarily stable, Jiangsu China Resources intends to increase 1 yuan/weight box, and most other factories are stable; the downstream manufacturers in North China are slow to start construction, and the market trading atmosphere is cold. At present, Hebei safety 5mm is quoted at 1096 yuan/ton, and the price is expected to be stable in a short time It is difficult to rebound "

in the new year, the glass spot market performed well at the beginning of the year, and the prices in southern China generally rose. However, the short-term high inventory of Northern Enterprises is still the biggest problem. Whether the spot enterprises take turns to promote the upward price and whether the demand recovers rapidly are the fundamental factors that determine whether the spot market has completely warmed up

glass demand situation

in the short term, the industrial regulation policy is stronger than the market law, which has poured a ladle of refreshing water on the expected demand. Last week, "first tier cities may strengthen the control of pre-sale of new houses", China's real estate information data showed that the transaction area of commercial housing across the country fell sharply. The resumption of downstream enterprises after the festival has brought short-term demand for glass. The calm urbanization hype has restricted the long-term demand capacity for glass, and the weakened expected demand has discounted the pulling effect of the recent real demand on the entire glass market

glass futures

on the 19th, the contract closed flat in May, with 416 positions increased, and the trading volume was very small. In September, the contract continued to fall, closing at 1614 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased by 10% compared with the previous trading day, with 61304 positions increased. In the short term, the rotation amount of the movable chuck represents that the end of sample 1 is related to another real rotation. Affected by the tightening of macro policies and the overall weakness of building materials, glass futures are mainly callback, but the space is relatively limited

summary

on the 19th, the mainstream quotation of domestic manufacturers increased steadily, but it is difficult for Hebei enterprises to recover in the short term. After the festival, the short-term demand for glass spot has improved under the resumption of work of processing enterprises. Subject to the impact of tight macro policies, the long-term demand brought by urbanization is slightly lack of confidence after the field experiment of residual film recovery carried out by Tianjin Institute of agricultural machinery in the heat of urbanization gradually recedes, and the weakened long-term demand has discounted the pulling effect of real demand on the whole market

glass futures continue to callback. It is expected that as the strong expected effect subsides, glass futures will bid farewell to the unilateral market and return to the wide-ranging volatile market dominated by seasonality. The callback demand is strong in the short term, but the space below is not large. Focus on 1600 strong support in the short term

investors can directly search "Zhao Fei of Wanda futures" in Baidu to obtain contact information, exchange and consult with glass futures investment opportunities

20 day operation suggestions

day traders operate low and short, strictly stop losses, and position 20%; Conditional production enterprises consider short hedging according to their own costs; Other types of investors do long spread arbitrage or hold long September contracts in low positions

Author: Zhao Fei (Wanda futures Xi'an Business Department) the content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk

China glass () Department