The hottest glass futures need to further resolve

Glass futures needs to further resolve policy risks

important news

the economic data of European countries are less than expected, and the economic situation is still uncertain; The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting triggered market concerns. The economic data in January were mixed, and the employment rate was still not ideal; One of the driving forces of domestic economic growth - the real estate market is obviously suppressed by policies

although the annual total number of new housing starts in the United States in January was less than expected, the commencement and construction permits of single family new housing were the highest in 53 and 54 months respectively, reflecting the growth momentum of the real estate industry this year. The number of us first-time applications for unemployment benefits last week was higher than expected. The initial value of PMI in February was 55.2, slightly lower than the expected 55.5

the minutes of the Fed meeting showed that officials had differences on the current QE, causing market concerns

the PMI data of the euro zone in February was far less than expected, and member countries still face difficulties in economic recovery

glass index analysis

on the 21st, the "China glass composite index" Rose 2.09 points over the previous day, "China glass price index" rose 2.6 points, "China glass market confidence index" Rose 0.05 points. The spot market price in the South continued to rise, while the northern market was cautiously optimistic. The indexes were still rising, but the confidence index was relatively weak

glass spot situation

the domestic glass market is stable and positive, and the prices in major production areas are stable and rising slightly. Industry conferences have been held in succession, with strong expectations of price support

"on the 21st, the domestic float glass raw sheet market operated fairly well, and the prices in a small part of the region rose. The trading and investment in North China was general, the production and sales were stable, and there was a lack of funds for the industrialization of achievements and the technological transformation of enterprises. Before that, Hebei safety 5mm flat plate reported 1096 yuan/ton; the production and sales in East China were good, and some branch manufacturers canceled rebates. At present, Jinjing (Tengzhou) 5mm quotation 1260 yuan/ton; In South China, the price of 5mm white glass in Jiangmen Yisheng rose by 2 yuan/heavy box, and now it is 1680 yuan/ton "

the glass market is stable and strong in the south, but weak in the north. The pattern has not fundamentally changed. Northern enterprises are strongly expected to raise prices, but short-term high inventory is still the biggest problem. Whether spot enterprises will take turns to promote the price rise will be determined at the regional industry meetings. Although the expectation of enterprises to support the price is strong, the glass industry is not an oligarch industry, and the price rise still needs a substantial change in demand. It is worth noting that the two sessions will set the long-term policy of real estate regulation, and the uncertainty of the glass market is increasing

glass demand situation

maintain the demand point of view: in the short term, the industrial regulation policy is stronger than the market law, which has poured a ladle of refreshing water on the expected demand. The resumption of downstream enterprises after the festival has brought short-term demand for glass. The calm urbanization hype has restricted the long-term demand capacity for glass, and the weakened expected demand has discounted the pulling effect of the recent real demand on the entire glass market, and the tight real estate regulation and control policy has further restricted the long-term demand capacity

Technical Specification for lightweight aggregate concrete in glass period JGJ 51 (2) 002 shipment situation

on the 21st, glass futures fell precipitously, and the rising market of unilateral expansion and deep processing came to an end temporarily. The contract in May was significantly weaker after the previous high-level consolidation. In September, the contract closed at 1558 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was nearly doubled compared with the previous trading day, with an increase of -49538 positions. Glass futures are affected by systemic risks in the short term. Although the spot fundamentals are booming, they still cannot escape a decent decline. In the short term, it is still dominated by callback and consolidation. The emergence of the new bottom also requires effective cooperation from the news side

summary

on the 21st, domestic glass ex factory prices continued to rise steadily, and Northern manufacturers were strongly willing to raise prices. Glass futures opened low and fell low. The export growth of China's extruder products will show a stable and progressive situation. With the steep fall of industrial products, the contract fell by 32 yuan/ton in May and 54 yuan/ton in September. The weakness of macro policies and peripheral markets strongly suppressed industrial products, and glass futures made a deep adjustment. Recently, the real estate policy is obviously tight, and its negative effect is difficult to be effectively resolved in the short term. The industry conference is expected that the price hike will barely support the glass futures. Based on the strength of these two factors, it is expected that the glass futures will still find strong support in the short term and pay attention to the moving average support

investors can directly search "Wanda futures Zhao Fei" or Jiaqun () in Baidu to get contact information, exchange and consult about glass futures investment opportunities

22 day operation suggestions

day traders operate short, stop losses strictly, and position 20%; The value preservation of production enterprises is suspended; Other types of investors do multi spread arbitrage or gradually establish medium-term multi orders at the effective support level

Author: Zhao Fei (Wanda futures Xi'an Business Department) the content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk

China glass () Department