The hottest glass futures are pessimistic in the s

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Glass futures are pessimistic in the short term and optimistic in the long term due to seasonal factors

the pessimistic demand for glass in the short term has strong seasonal factors, and it is also an overreaction of the market to the winter storage price, while the long-term fundamental expectation is more optimistic. The short-term glass price will continue to be weak due to the lack of favorable factors to control the amount of oil entering the oil tank, but in the long run, the future price will continue to rise with the recovery of glass demand. It is suggested that short-term investors focus on intra day range operations, and long-term investors can place more than 1305 or 1309 orders below 1300 yuan

short term pessimism is attributed to seasonal factors

in the short term, the current downstream demand for glass is sluggish, while the supply is still unabated, and the fundamental factors are all negative. In November, the inventory of manufacturing enterprises at the end of the month was 134 tons, an increase of 20000 tons compared with October. This year, the cumulative new production capacity reached 3.87 million tons and 18 production lines

however, from the historical law of the industry that WDS series liquid crystal electronic tensile testing machine is a new material testing machine combining electronic technology and mechanical transmission, the low price of flat glass in winter and the rising inventory are the seasonal characteristics of the industry. 70% of the flat glass demand is for real estate, and the prosperity of the real estate industry directly affects the glass price. Due to the winter in December, the real estate operating rate fell sharply due to the northern weather, and the demand for flat glass was limited. However, glass production faces the dilemma of high production cost and difficult storage of finished products. Therefore, glass enterprises often cut prices sharply in winter to reduce inventory pressure and maintain normal operations. With the mild recovery of downstream demand in the future, glass prices will continue to rise. However, from the perspective of short-term factors, demand continues to be sluggish, industry pressure remains unabated, and glass futures prices lack upward momentum if the jaw line is blocked

the market overreacted to the winter storage price

on the 7th, the Northeast consortium set the winter storage price in 2012 at yuan/ton, down about 140 yuan from 1260 yuan/ton last year. Affected by this news, the future price of glass fell sharply to less than 1300 yuan/ton. The winter reserve price in 2012 was lower than that of last year, which to some extent reflects the pessimistic attitude of Northern Enterprises towards the future market. However, in terms of price, due to differences in transportation and product quality, the price of northern glass is at least 100 yuan/ton lower than that of the target region of glass futures. Considering the price difference between warehousing and off-season and peak season, even with 1100 yuan as the benchmark, the corresponding period price of 1305, the main contract of glass, can reach 1300-1400 yuan. But at present, the 1305 contract price is still stuck below 1300 yuan. The author believes that the suppression of the winter storage price on the glass futures price has been in place at 1300 yuan, and the fundamental data do not support the continued sharp decline of the futures price. However, given that this variety has just been listed, speculative fluctuations are strong, and in the short term, the concentration of negative factors in the market does not rule out the possibility of falling to the social average cost line of 1200 yuan in the short term

optimistic about long-term glass futures price

in the long run, the author is not pessimistic about the trend of glass futures price. From the perspective of the most important downstream real estate industry, the downstream demand for glass in 2013 is expected to show a mild improvement. The latest data shows that although the real estate completion data of the glass consumption synchronization index still maintained a negative growth of 7.2% in November, the decrease has been slightly narrower than that in October; Sales data of leading indicators showed positive year-on-year growth for the first time in the year; The completed amount of real estate investment also stabilized and rebounded, with the value in November rising by 1.3% to 16.7% from October. In terms of supply, since the beginning of this year, except for the positive year-on-year growth of glass production at the beginning of the year, the output data from May to November have maintained a negative growth of about 3% year-on-year. The supply pressure of the industry has not deteriorated. At the same time, it caused great shock to the industry. The main contract in May corresponds to the downstream consumption peak season. It is expected that with the mild recovery of downstream demand in the future and the weakening of the speculative characteristics of new varieties, the long-term glass price will continue to rise. However, from the perspective of fundamentals and current market sentiment, the continuous rise of futures prices will not appear until after the Spring Festival at least. Zhonghua glass () Department

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